Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 75316.556483 79563.468261 83813.606982 88383.078523 93153.852188 97984.774403 103243.313272
2026-01-11 68409.097215 74880.022574 81539.778786 88896.782525 96786.738226 104984.774076 114137.398415
2026-01-18 63224.127894 71191.774858 79575.860951 89036.672538 99396.007576 110374.728684 122869.852690
2026-01-25 59268.287092 68349.503112 78084.863911 89266.379834 101721.514684 115136.382922 130644.207659
2026-02-01 55837.728819 65767.773642 76589.100580 89211.494733 103482.397513 119068.541684 137328.742298
2026-02-08 53426.432592 64125.257379 75955.614405 89944.681468 105968.643054 123683.348476 144679.216837
2026-02-15 50882.126338 62161.066637 74804.047025 89944.889998 107498.653133 127122.406181 150628.621825
2026-02-22 49360.031404 61273.565571 74792.947715 91168.501917 110359.043842 132026.097714 158223.830845
2026-03-01 47770.591652 60210.843200 74493.634676 91980.808422 112682.408517 136273.229686 165046.910199
2026-03-08 45839.410271 58646.058604 73518.169356 91918.214382 113914.848544 139206.476406 170314.107656
2026-03-15 44252.409953 57421.611662 72880.260527 92194.721694 115496.961710 142513.736848 176002.538406
2026-03-22 43362.666176 56999.937538 73166.149797 93545.800246 118337.904867 147298.690906 183448.950227
2026-03-29 42309.124412 56345.790126 73150.842508 94526.211726 120745.757553 151603.599234 190389.649455
2026-04-05 41142.073259 55504.446952 72868.253132 95149.573422 122702.981923 155368.007377 196703.405862
2026-04-12 39827.338864 54426.061488 72247.507875 95315.815244 124071.114740 158405.759111 202141.477512
2026-04-19 38632.437743 53455.337403 71720.850795 95562.840825 125511.162254 161515.827499 207668.216788
2026-04-26 37366.959365 52348.507022 70981.785638 95505.766541 126543.797823 164109.702421 212560.371957
2026-05-03 36549.630272 51794.399958 70918.579513 96281.088153 128603.219729 167964.185016 219015.728562
2026-05-10 35434.931674 50811.306253 70271.423780 96281.358005 129663.260882 170569.314122 223927.656050
2026-05-17 34936.346204 50626.430448 70639.895528 97574.797459 132359.962172 175220.588272 231408.798046
2026-05-24 34280.885933 50207.449744 70683.732422 98433.357508 134495.106439 179173.396303 238037.124078
2026-05-31 33275.637932 49284.010310 70037.169474 98367.202827 135424.065462 181598.687913 242749.783092
2026-06-07 32461.614648 48596.101001 69679.252220 98659.438476 136801.857288 184587.022685 248181.099732